IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Orleans
Southland
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.2	#292
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#276
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#297

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.5	#263

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.4%	21.5%	7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.0	15.6

.500 or above	26.6%	59.4%	25.2%
.500 or above in Conference	54.4%	74.4%	53.5%
Conference Champion	4.6%	9.6%	4.4%
Last Place in Conference	7.3%	2.5%	7.5%

First Four	4.5%	6.4%	4.4%
First Round	6.2%	17.6%	5.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.0	0.0 - 1.7
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.0	0.2 - 3.7
Quad 3	1.0 - 4.0	1.3 - 7.7
Quad 4	8.8 - 7.3	10.0 - 15.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2018	62	@ Northwestern	L	57-73	4%
Nov 14, 2018	187	@ UAB	L	65-71	21%
Nov 28, 2018	100	Louisiana	L	66-77	22%
Dec 05, 2018	150	South Alabama	L	66-74	33%
Dec 13, 2018	98	@ Tulsa	L	63-75	10%
Dec 20, 2018	167	@ Pittsburgh	L	61-68	19%
Dec 29, 2018	48	@ Baylor	L	58-75	4%
Jan 02, 2019	230	@ Abilene Christian	L	67-70	29%
Jan 05, 2019	312	Houston Baptist	W	76-74	65%
Jan 09, 2019	227	@ Lamar	L	66-69	30%
Jan 12, 2019	304	McNeese St.	W	71-70	63%
Jan 16, 2019	105	Stephen F. Austin	L	65-76	25%
Jan 19, 2019	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	67-66	44%
Jan 23, 2019	303	@ Central Arkansas	W	74-73	44%
Jan 26, 2019	330	@ Incarnate Word	W	72-68	55%
Jan 30, 2019	328	Northwestern St.	W	69-65	72%
Feb 02, 2019	330	Incarnate Word	W	72-68	73%
Feb 06, 2019	328	@ Northwestern St.	W	69-65	53%
Feb 09, 2019	263	Nicholls St.	L	72-73	55%
Feb 16, 2019	309	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	67-66	63%
Feb 20, 2019	236	SE Louisiana	L	65-68	51%
Feb 23, 2019	304	@ McNeese St.	W	71-70	44%
Feb 27, 2019	258	Sam Houston St.	L	65-67	55%
Mar 02, 2019	263	@ Nicholls St.	L	72-73	36%
Mar 06, 2019	236	@ SE Louisiana	L	65-68	32%
Projected Record						10.0 - 15.0	8.9 - 9.1

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.3	1.1	0.4	0.1		4.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.6	2.6	2.2	1.2	0.3	0.0			8.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	1.9	3.4	2.5	0.7	0.1					9.0	3rd
4th										0.3	2.0	4.1	2.4	0.6	0.1						9.5	4th
5th									0.1	2.1	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.0							9.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.3	4.4	3.1	0.6	0.0								9.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	4.0	3.5	0.7	0.0									9.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.1	3.7	1.2	0.0										8.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.0	4.0	1.7	0.1											8.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	1.9	3.6	2.0	0.2												7.7	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	1.2	2.9	1.9	0.3	0.0												6.5	11th
12th		0.0	0.3	1.2	2.2	1.6	0.3	0.0													5.5	12th
13th	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0														4.2	13th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.6	2.7	4.3	6.9	8.3	10.3	10.9	11.6	10.9	9.1	7.9	6.2	4.1	2.6	1.5	0.4	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	93.1%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	78.1%	1.1		0.8	0.3	0.0
15-3	49.3%	1.3		0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	27.3%	1.1		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	7.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.6%	4.6		2.4	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		87.4%	87.4%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.4%		75.6%	75.6%		14.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
16-2	1.5%		52.5%	52.5%		14.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.7
15-3	2.6%		41.3%	41.3%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	1.5
14-4	4.1%		37.7%	37.7%		15.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.5
13-5	6.2%		20.2%	20.2%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	5.0
12-6	7.9%		13.6%	13.6%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.0	6.9
11-7	9.1%		9.1%	9.1%		16.0																0.0	0.8	8.3
10-8	10.9%		5.3%	5.3%		16.0																0.0	0.6	10.3
9-9	11.6%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.3	11.3
8-10	10.9%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																	0.4	10.5
7-11	10.3%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
6-12	8.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
5-13	6.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.9
4-14	4.3%																							4.3
3-15	2.7%																							2.7
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		8.4%	8.4%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.6	6.0	91.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%